“Best Soccer Picks Are a PROCESS, Not a Magical List”

I think the most under-discussed part of this — and where most people go wrong chasing the so-called best soccer picks — is the layer you hinted at w/ injuries as rate deltas. Most people treat lineup news as binary “good / bad,” but the real signal is the shape change that follows — different zones of ball progression, different pressing triggers, different set piece role owners, different shot quality mix. That plus starting from your own number (not the book’s number) is the whole difference between actual modeling and vibes. Any surviving edge is in the microstructure and in how we parameterize change.